Macroeconomic and Regional Forecasting
Tapping information often reveals a hidden competitive advantage.
Even though most institutions now have more computing power than ever before,
they are far from exploiting the potential productive benefits. Tremendous
amounts of information have not been utilized to improve decision-making. Many
critical questions exist, but the quantitative skills to find useful answers
are not always available.
Chmura Economics & Analytics brings together the skill and experience to
turn data into information that leads to confident decisions and
the realization of bold goals. We offer software solutions as well as
customized products to meet the particular needs of your organization.
Macro model - Our national model forecasts over 100 indicators,
including the components of gross domestic product, interest rates, housing
activity, retail sales, and employment. Our interest rate forecast is published
in our Weekly Economic Update.
Probability of recession model - The Recession Monitor
estimates the probability of a recession occurring in the next six months.
Download a sample of this publication.
Firms - Why is a particular product line, such as commercial
loans or automobiles growing at its current rate? Is growth occurring in line
with economic activity or demographic trends at the national and regional
level? Or are exceptional management skills driving growth to higher levels
than fundamental conditions would suggest? Product-line forecasting can help
you allocate the resources of your firm. It also allows you set goals that take
into account fundamental growth and provides a measure of the remaining growth
that can be attributed to the value added provided by management.
Forecasts - We provide forecasts of employment, wages, retail
sales, and building permits for Virginia and its metropolitan areas in our
Economic Trends. Forecasts are available for other regions in
Virginia or outside of Virginia upon request. We also forecast regional skill
gaps for occupations and industries.
Impact Studies - How will employment and income in a region
change when a particular industry closes a plant , expands a location, or is
part of a new firm entry? What will be the fiscal and economic impacts of a new
office building or development on a locality? How does a firm or tourism events
impact the state or regional economy? These scenarios can be addressed in
further detail by considering the industries most dependent on the event in
question and the degree to which other industries are affected by the event in
question (estimated sales and job gains)? Finally, impact studies consider how
these changes ripple through the economy with direct and total dollar impacts.
Chmura Economics & Analytics can help you answer all of these questions
with our sophisticated input-output models.
Industries - What are the growth prospects for a particular
industry? Is the industry in secular decline or is it undergoing a short-term
restructuring? What occupations and skills are needed? Industry analysis
provides businesses and economic developers with an objective assessment of
potential trends. The examples below provide a broad analysis of an industry
within one state.
Electronics Industry in
What industries comprise the electronics industry in the state, where are they
located, and what are their average salaries?
How does growth in the state’s industry compare with that of the nation?
in Virginia -
Where are the materials industry firms located within the state and what do
What materials industries are considered high-tech?
Leading indexes - Leading indexes for Virginia as well as
its metropolitan areas (Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, Richmond-Petersburg,
Roanoke, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, Danville, Winchester, Harrisonburg, and
Blacksburg) typically change direction ahead of business cycle turns in the
economy. Download a sample
of our leading index report.
Contact us to request more information
about this topic.