Chmura Recession Monitor Through June 2019: 35%

Economic growth in the United States has generally been modest to moderate since the recovery began in the 3rd quarter of 2009. After increasing at a 4.2% annual rate in the 2nd quarter of 2018, real GDP rose at a 3.4% annual rate in the 3rd quarter as growth in consumer spending remained strong and a healthy contribution to growth from change in private inventories offset a subtraction from trade. Due to the 9.2% drop in the S&P 500 in December and the narrowing yield spread, the probability of recession jumped to 35% through June 2019.

Examining Industry Mobility for Occupations

Industry mobility indicates the potential ease of switching industries based on an occupation’s employment share across industries. A mobile occupation is one in which workers can move from one industry to another with relative ease. This is important in designing training programs with skills needed across multiple industries as well as in the event of industry decline or a dislocation event. For example, almost 80% of electricians are employed in the construction sector. A downturn in construction is therefore likely to be a challenge for electricians because they may not be able to find a new job in another industry since such a large majority of employment opportunities for electricians are concentrated in the construction sector.

According to a 2015 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report, almost one-half (46%) of recent college graduates were underemployed in 2014. The so-called underemployed workers are employed in an occupation below their level of qualification. For example, a graduate with a Bachelor’s Degree in economics who is waiting tables or working at a retail store is considered underemployed.

Strong Gains in Median Household Income Last Year

According to data released in the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2015 Income and Poverty in the United States report, median household income jumped 5.2% in real terms last year, the largest increase since the Census Bureau began recording such data in 1967. Despite the healthy jump in median household income last year, however, it still remains slightly below where it stood in 2007, the beginning of the

Labor Day—Time for Leisure!

Labor Day is approaching, signaling the end of summer is near. In the United States, Labor Day—a federal holiday which celebrates and honors the accomplishments of American workers past and present—is the first Monday in September. For most Americans, Labor Day means a day off from work and a three-day weekend. Just what do Americans do for fun when they aren’t working?