Economic Impact: Time will tell how dangerous this simple curve is

Talk of recession has picked up again. The reason might sound complicated, but the principle is fairly basic. In financial parlance, we’re talking about the inversion of the yield curve. Here’s what that means … and how it might take a bit of time to know the consequences. The U.S. Treasury Department sells government bonds at various maturity dates — ranging from one month to 30 years — and it pays interest on that money it is borrowing. The “yield curve” simply represents the relationship between interest rates on short-term and longer-term securities.

Economic Impact: The economy is performing well but are there signs a possible recession is looming?

A shopper checks out holiday ornaments inside the Target store at 9001 Staples Mill Road in Henrico County on Nov. 19, a few days ahead of Black Friday. Over the past month, many analysts have started to talk about the possibility of a recession looming in 2019. And with good reason. All three major stock market indices finished 2018 with their worst annual performance since 2008.

Economic Impact: How much will Amazon's new second headquarters benefit Virginia?

The entire state of Virginia will benefit from Amazon’s decision to locate part of its second headquarters in Northern Virginia. Combining capital expenditures made by Amazon in 2030 when it reaches full capacity, along with the headquarters’ operations, the total economic impact is estimated to be $14.2 billion in Virginia, supporting 59,308 jobs, according to a new study by Chmura Economics & Analytics commissioned by the Virginia Chamber Foundation that looked into the economic impact of Amazon’s decision.

Amazon’s Impact in Crystal City, Virginia

Amazon announced plans for a new corporate headquarters in September 2017, setting off a frenzy of bids (238 proposals) as well as speculation as to which city would win the competition. On November 13, 2018, it became official, Crystal City, Virginia—just south of downtown Washington D.C. and the location of Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport—would become home to a new headquarters for Amazon, splitting the overall planned expansion with New York City. Chmura Economics & Analytics was honored to perform the economic impact analysis for the Crystal City expansion on behalf of the Virginia Chamber Foundation. This impact analysis included a study of the job, spending, and tax effects projected to result from Amazon’s new headquarters in Northern Virginia.

Economic Impact: Good reasons for retail sales to be strong for this year's holiday shopping season

By the appearance inside many stores at malls and shopping centers, it’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas. This is the time of year that represents about 20 percent of the retail industry's total sales. And based on recent announcements by some national retailers of plans to hire more seasonal workers than last year, it looks like the chains are optimistic about the upcoming holiday shopping season. And there is good reason for that optimism.