Leslie Peterson was mentioned in the Alumni Buzz section of the LEAD Virginia June 2010 E-newsletter:

Leslie Peterson, '07, was appointed to the Governor's Commission on Higher Education Reform, Innovation and Investment.

Don Zacherl, '07, Leslie Peterson, '07 and Dr. Glenn DuBois, LEAD VIRGINIA Board of Directors, participated in the MS150 Bike Ride for Cycle Times.  They raised $9,006.00 to help make a difference in the fight against MS. They rode 150 miles on Saturday and Sunday May 22 and 23. 

The Obama administration's flagship effort to help people in danger of losing their homes is falling flat.

More than a third of the 1.24 million borrowers who have enrolled in the $75 billion mortgage modification program have dropped out. That exceeds the number of people who have managed to have their loan payments reduced to help them keep their homes.

Last month alone, 155,000 borrowers left the program -- bringing the total to 436,000 who have dropped out since it began in March 2009.

About 340,000 homeowners have received permanent loan modifications and are making payments on time.

Administration officials say those who were rejected from the program will get help in other ways.

But analysts expect the majority will still wind up in foreclosure, and that could slow the broader economic recovery.

"The increasing number of unemployed probably is contributing to the large percentage of dropouts," said Christine Chmura of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond.

A major reason so many have fallen out of the program is the Obama administration initially pressured banks to sign up borrowers without insisting first on proof of their income. When banks later moved to collect the information, many troubled homeowners were disqualified or dropped out.

Many borrowers complained that the banks lost their documents. The industry said borrowers weren't sending back the necessary paperwork.

As more people leave the program, a new wave of foreclosures could occur, analysts say. If that happens, it could weaken the housing market.

Original article

Chris Chmura was quoted in a June 18, 2010 article by Danielle Walker of Inside Business.

Hampton Roads has fared better than the national unemployment rate due to a diverse workforce and strong military presence, according to Opportunity Inc.'s 2010 "State of the Workforce" report.

Although the region has not been exempt from workforce trepidation, one economist said these factors lend stability in a stinging job market.

"The presence of the military generally gives the Hampton Roads area stability during the recession," said Christine Chmura, author of the report and president of Chmura Economics and Analytics, a Richmond-based economic consulting firm. "Some of the industries that have been expanding have helped offset declines, for example, shipbuilding. Other sectors that have been growing in Hampton Roads, as well as the nation, are education and health care."

April 2010 statistics showed that the Hampton Roads region had a 7.1 percent unemployment rate. Statewide joblessness was at 6.7 percent, while the national average was at 9.9 percent for the month.

On June 10, Opportunity Inc., a workforce development board that partners with the Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce, hosted an event at the Sheraton Norfolk Waterside Hotel to share the report. More than 150 people attended. Edward Gordon, author of "Winning the Global Talent Showdown," was the keynote speaker.

Some improvements were cited between the last workforce report in 2005 and the 2010 report.

In the five-year gap, the ship- and boatbuilding industry gained 762 jobs, creating an annual average gain of 1.3 percent in the region. The national average for the industry showed a 0.4 percent decline.

Other slight gains for the area included a decrease in poverty among the elderly. In 2000, the percentage of elderly living in poverty was at 8.6 percent, and by 2008 the rate had fallen to 7.8 percent in Hampton Roads. The percent of children living in poverty, however, stayed at 14.7 percent over the period.

Chmura said that overall, poverty was down but there were "some outliers" that should be considered, such as increases in certain counties contrasting with significant decreases in others.

High area diversity, and an increase in people receiving college degrees, were also noted in the report.

One area that was mentioned with particular attention to improvement was transportation.

"Some factors that affect growth, or might in the future, include transportation," Chmura said. "That's an area of potential concern. Otherwise the trends, between the current reports and the 2005 report, showed improvement in the Hampton Roads area."

Chmura said that increased congestion could discourage companies from expanding into the area. She also said that the addition of light rail would reduce congestion, although she was not aware of the returns it would gain toward costs.

A rise in the region's dropout rate by 2.3 percent was cited by Chmura as a figure that should be weighed against other factors.

"I don't even know that the small increase is significant," she said. "That could be individuals moving to a different school system."

Robert Sharak, development officer and spokesman for Opportunity Inc., explained the organization's community role and participation in workforce development.

"What's happening is there's a needle-in-a-haystack situation going on," he said. "There are people who have the right qualifications, but finding those applicants in a sea of resumes or finding that individual is a little challenging."

Sharak said that the surplus of people who find themselves out of work for an extended period of time, is an area where Opportunity Inc. can help.

"That's a training and retraining issue," he said. "They need significant retraining in order to be competitive in the market."

In late January, the group organized a job fair that was attended by more than 1,000 people.

The fair was held on the heels of a major layoff at International Paper, when more than 1,000 people were laid off at the IP Franklin plant.

Sharak said Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding - one of several other local companies in attendance - was able to help many jobless residents transition from a period of unemployment into an apprenticeship program.

Opportunity Inc. plans to take recent workforce findings in stride, and keep the ball rolling.

"Now it's a matter of taking the data, and [seeing] how we can work on some of the issues we heard in the report," Sharak said.

In 2009, Roanoke suffered the second-largest job loss among Virginia's 11 metros.
By Duncan Adams

The numbers bob like tar balls and are about as welcome to those who worry that the Roanoke Valley already suffers from low self-esteem.

The latest issue of "Virginia Economic Trends," published quarterly by Richmond-based Chmura Economics & Analytics, suggests that the recession has slammed the Roanoke metropolitan statistical area a lot worse than many of the state's MSAs.

The paint-by-numbers portrait seems to counter conventional wisdom that the Roanoke metro's comparatively slow growth helps protect it from recessions' worst effects. No boom, no bust.

Yet according to the firm's report, Roanoke suffered in 2009 the second-largest job loss among Virginia's 11 metros, declining 4.5 percent on an annual average basis. The Winchester MSA had the highest decline at 5 percent. The Roanoke MSA includes the cities of Roanoke and Salem and the counties of Botetourt, Craig, Franklin and Roanoke.

Another finding: Many Roanoke Valley retailers, including restaurateurs and hoteliers, took a hit during the 12 months ending in March, a period when the Roanoke MSA, with a retail sales drop of 8 percent, "tied [with Blacksburg MSA] for the quickest pace of decline among the state metro areas."

In April, the Roanoke City Council raised the city's meals tax by 2 percentage points to help fund schools. Matt Bullington, president of the Texas Tavern, and many other restaurateurs opposed the increase.

He said the Chmura report's account of declining sales was no surprise.

The economy is still flat, Bullington said, and people "are still cutting back on discretionary spending, which of course food services tend to fall under."

Initially, Anne Piedmont, director of research for the Roanoke Regional Partnership, questioned the report's findings. She later determined her own analysis crunched the numbers differently. Others emphasized that the Chmura data reflect conditions only through March. Since then, they say, signs suggest Roanoke is bouncing back.

"The Roanoke region got into the recession later than some parts of the country and we're coming out of it later as a result," said Joyce Waugh, president of the Roanoke Regional Chamber of Commerce.

"This is the worst recession since the Great Depression," she added, "It's affected every country on the planet. That the impact is uneven is somewhat expected."

The Chmura report includes data available through March. It also examines economic indicators for the 12-month period ended in March and for calendar 2009.

A March report about the Roanoke MSA by Moody's Economy.com observed, "The recession has moderated substantially and is nearing an end in Roanoke."

And there are suggestions, Waugh said, that economic activity in the Roanoke metro area is up. "Businesses are hiring," she said.

Coy Renick is president and owner of The Renick Group, a Roanoke-based business specializing in professional recruitment and white-collar staffing.

"I'm seeing an uptick in demand for temporary workers," he said. "It's still slow for full-time employees with benefits. I think companies are hedging their bets on the recession [ending]."

The Moody's report described other evidence that the Roanoke MSA seems to be rebounding.

One example: "Both data and anecdotal reports confirm an improvement in housing fundamentals, with permits and [housing] starts trending slightly upward, though still at very low levels."

Homebuilder Brent Fortenberry of Bench Mark Builders has seen modest gains.

"Compared to a year ago, things, from my perspective, are definitely better," Fortenberry said. "I feel things are improving, although slowly."

As for commercial real estate, Stuart Meredith, executive vice president for Hall Associates, said there has been more of an increase in leasing than buying -- a trend he attributed to financing challenges and businesses worried about a prolonged recession-related hangover.

But, like the Chmura analysis, the Moody's profile described clouds both current and forecast. Its "relative vitality scale" evaluation of 384 metro areas ranked the Roanoke MSA toward the low end, at 332, with a score of 76 percent.

Moody's predicts the Roanoke metro "will capitalize on its growing role as a medical and retail hub for southern Virginia." During the year ended in March, the most job growth occurred in the health services and education sector.

In an e-mail, Chris Chmura, president and chief economist for Chmura Economics, said Carilion Clinic's growth "supported the gain but education and health employment grew in most MSAs and the country due to demographic trends and the fact that students often continue their education if they can't find a job when they graduate."

A low note concludes the Moody's narrative: "slow population growth will ultimately relegate Roanoke to a below-average performer at the far end of the forecast."

Yet during video segments broadcast June 8 during an "economic summit" in Roanoke, four local entrepreneurs extolled the region's virtues. They were Bonz Hart of Meridium; Linda Balentine of Crowning Touch Senior Moving Services; Leon Harris of Keltech; and, Tamea Woodward of EastWest DyeCom.

Meridium, an international software company, is headquartered in downtown Roanoke.

"Roanoke was a great place for us to recruit people into," said Hart during the video. "They are attracted to the great place to raise families, to the environment -- all the things they can do outside -- and just the ease of living here."

Original article.

Chris Chmura was quoted in a recent article by Philip Walzer of the Virginian-Pilot about a study that Chmura Economics & Analytics prepared:

Local wages are below the national average, but poverty has inched down.

More residents are receiving college degrees, but the region's population growth lags the nation's.

These were among the findings in a report, "Hampton Roads State of the Workforce: 2010," released Thursday by Opportunity Inc., a regional work force agency.

Hampton Roads has been "temporarily impaired by the recession, but it s economic foundation remains strong," said Christina Chmura, a Richmond economist who compiled the study.

Chmura, who unveiled the report at a meeting at the Sheraton Norfolk Waterside Hotel, said the region boasts several economic advantages, such as its large military population. But her study said local leaders should work to improve transportation, increase the size of the work force and expand connections among employers, educators and job seekers.

The report collected a trove of statistics in areas from education to employment. Among the numbers:

Poverty. The poverty rate in Hampton Roads fell slightly, from 11.6 percent in 1990 to 11.1 percent in 2008. The rates for cities varied widely, from 19.5 percent in Norfolk to 7 percent in Virginia Beach.

Demographics. The region's population is more diverse than that of the state or the nation - an asset for employers, said Chmura, president of Chmura Economics & Analytics. About 30 percent of residents are black, more than double the national average. Hampton Roads also has a lower average age - 35 - probably because of the high concentration of military personnel, she said.

Population growth. Hamp-ton Roads recorded 0.19 percent average annual growth in population from 2004 to 2008, compared with 0.94 percent for the nation and 1.04 percent for the state. "It doesn't seem to be a problem," Chmura said. "When there have been periods of growth, people have come to this region" to fill jobs.

Wages. Last year, the average annual wage locally was $39,179, compared with $47,538 in Virginia. That, Chmura said, reflects the mix of industries in the area and the relatively low average age and cost of living.

College degrees. The number of people receiving degrees from local public two- and four-year colleges grew nearly 30 percent from 1995 to 2007, to 11,650. "The real challenge there is can we keep them?" Chmura said.

Public schools. Chmura pointed to a handful of promising trends, including a decline in the student-teacher ratio and increases in the percentage of students passing Standards of Learning math tests. The dropout rate, however, has risen and, at 2.3 percent, exceeds Virginia's 1.8 percent average.

Industry. Like the nation, Hampton Roads has experienced employment growth in the services sector, in areas such as health care and business services. But Chmura said the local shipbuilding industry has been robust, thanks to defense contracts, recording average annual job growth of 1.3 percent in the past five years, compared with a national decline of 0.4 percent.

CHRISTINE CHMURA TIMES-DISPATCH COLUMNIST
Originally published on June 7, 2010

The debt-to-GDP ratio of Greece reached 115 percent in April when Standard & Poor's downgraded its debt rating to junk status. One has to wonder if the United States could get to that point.

We've taken on a lot of debt over the past few years to bail out insurance companies, banks and auto manufacturers.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act alone is adding $787 billion to our debt load. The health-care changes are expected to reduce the deficit, but that is yet to be seen.

Based on the January 2010 Congressional Budget Office's projections, federal debt held by the public will hit $7.9 trillion in 2019. The debt-to-gross domestic product ratio will reach 77 percent by 2019 -- up from 33 percent in 2001. By comparison, the historical high of 109 percent was reached in 1946 during the aftermath of World War II.

Scenarios vary about how much the federal government debt will grow in 20 or more years because of uncertainties regarding spending and other factors, such as future interest rates and business cycles.

One scenario produced by the General Accountability Office shows our federal debt exceeding 109 percent of GDP around 2036. A second scenario that uses less-favorable assumptions about revenue and spending shows debt-to-GDP exceeding prior record levels by 2020 and exceeding 200 percent by 2030.

Aside from the risks to our debt rating, what does the higher load mean to the general public? It is likely that the large increases in government debt will put upward pressure on interest rates.

Chris Varvares of Macroeconomic Advisers modeled this situation in which the 10-year Treasury yield averages about 10.75 percent and the mortgage rate reaches 13 percent by 2030.

Clearly, homeownership will be out of reach for many prospective buyers. Cars and college education also will become less affordable.

More importantly for the broader economy, however, Varvares argues that the large amount of government debt increases interest rates to the degree that it discourages business investment, which leads to a reduction in productivity.

Less-efficient workers eventually lead to fewer job opportunities, increasing unemployment and stagnant wages. Such a scenario would reduce our standard of living.

Varvares concluded: "Our generation is on the verge of dooming the United States to second-class status unless we change our ways dramatically and soon."

Although scenarios vary on the timing of our rapidly growing federal debt, one theme is clear from those studying the potential impact of the debt on our economy:

The longer we wait to address the debt crisis, the more it will cost to get it back under control.

Chris Chmura was quoted in a recent article by David Ress:

The Richmond area's job market may have made a definite turn for the better, the latest Virginia Employment Commission data show.

Powered by a big jump in construction jobs and a reversal of recent declines in professional and business services, the region's unemployment rate fell to 7.5 percent in April from 8.3 percent in March, the commission reported yesterday. The rate was 7 percent a year ago.

"Construction was the biggest increase I've seen in a while, and the growth in professional and business services looks good," said Ann Lang, senior economist at the commission.

"It's looking positive."

But when adjusted for the usual spring variations in employment, the decline isn't that dramatic, and the rate remained stuck pretty much where it has been for the past several months, said Christine Chmura, president of Chmura Economics and Analytics.

"It's better that it's going down than going up," she said. "It is too soon to celebrate."

The Virginia rate fell to 6.7 percent in April from 7.6 percent in March, before accounting for typical seasonal variations. With those adjustments, the rate slipped to 7.2 percent from 7.3 percent.

Read the full article.

Over the year ending with the third quarter of 2010, level-one high-tech employment contracted 1.5% (-4,158 jobs) in Virginia while overall employment dropped 3.9% (-143,186 jobs). Level-one losses were led by architectural, engineering, and related services (-3,231 jobs); semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing (-2,432); and data processing, hosting, and related services (-1,192). In contrast, 3,727 jobs were added in computer systems design and related services. Level-two job growth included a gain of 2,499 jobs in management, scientific, and technical consulting services while level-three employment losses included the contraction of 2,117 jobs in wired telecommunications carriers and the loss of 2,570 jobs in management of companies and enterprises.

The Northern Virginia metro area (which consists of the Virginia portion of the tri-state Washington metro) accounts for about 57% of high-tech jobs in Virginia. Over the year ending with the third quarter of 2009, level-one high-tech employment contracted 0.8% (-1,430 jobs) in Northern Virginia while overall employment fell 2.6%. Several level-one expansions were recently announced for the metro area by Clarabridge (+50 jobs), IntelliDyne (+192), and OakTree Enterprise Solutions (+94). Other high-tech expansions announced included those by Capital One Financial (+400) and NeuStar (+280).

Information on the high-tech industry in each of Virginia’s metro areas can be found in the recently released 2nd quarter 2010 edition of the Virginia Economic Trends

Leslie Peterson will be serving the Commonwealth of Virginia as a member of Governor McDonnell’s Commission on Higher Education Reform, Innovation, and Investment. As Governor McDonnell envisioned, “This Commission will play a pivotal role in the effort to make Virginia a more-highly educated state where businesses seek to locate and good jobs are available to our citizens in the communities they call home.

Read the full executive order.

Chris Chmura was featured on the cover of the Richmond Times-Dispatch metro business section on May 24, 2010. Click here to read the full article.

Joe Mahoney/Times-Dispatch

When economist Christine Chmura was a teen in Cleveland thinking about college, she did what anyone who knows her might expect:

She made a matrix. A list of schools on one hand, her criteria on the other. Then, she tallied up the checkmarks that showed which colleges met what she wanted.

Women's athletics: She was a runner.

Size: She was looking for a large university.

Agronomy: Yes, farming.

"I was an early environmentalist and saw myself doing research," Chmura explained. "I took an earth science class as a freshman in high school and did quite a bit of reading on environmental topics. . . . Soil erosion was a big topic related to environmental issues. Hence, agronomy. The study of soil was the important piece."

In the end, as only some economists might expect, there was a tie between the University of Arkansas and Clemson University.

And Chmura's response was what many of her clients say not enough economists do: Check with a real person. Her dad, in this case.

"She never forgets that the end of a study or an analysis is a person," said Sara J. Dunnigan, senior vice president at the Greater Richmond Partnership, the region's economic development agency.

Her dad, by the way, said Clemson. And she listened to him.

Full article