Applied Economist
General / Economics May 09

An economic impact study performed by Chmura Economics & Analytics was recently featured in a Richmond Times-Dispatch article by Louis Llovio:

...

If Richmond wins the race, the city will have four years to stage the event, which would cost about $12.2 million. Kalman said he expects that money would come from public coffers as well as corporate sponsors.

Hosting the championships would be a windfall for the area, according to an economic impact study completed last month by Chmura Economics & Analytics. The study found that the championships could bring $135.3 million to the Richmond region.

According to the study, which was based in part on the number of attendees at previous world road cycling championships, Richmond would draw more than 1,000 athletes and more than 452,000 spectators from about 70 countries.

A large impact would come from the exposure Richmond would receive because of interest in the race.

About 500 media outlets from 35 countries are expected to cover the races. The coverage is expected to generate in excess of 400 hours of television watched by 300 million viewers, the study found.

...

Read the full article.

General / Economics Apr 19

A report performed by Chmura Economics & Analytics was mentioned in a recent press release issued by Govenor McDonnell's office:

The governor continued, “All regions of the Commonwealth will benefit from 900 projects that will be funded by this legislation. They include improvements to bridges and rural roads in Southwest Virginia, new capacity and congestion relief in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, and rail and transit improvements throughout Virginia. A recent report by Chmura Economics shows that construction of the 900 projects will grow the Virginia economy by over $13 billion and support an additional 100,000 jobs. This transportation legislation that we are signing today is a bipartisan achievement that will benefit Virginians in every corner of the Commonwealth.”  

 

General / Economics Apr 15

An economic impact study performed by Chmura Economics & Analytics was recently featured in the article Study: Millstone adds $1.2B a year to economy.

By Patricia Daddona

The Millstone Power Station, which employs 1,080 people at its Waterford complex, generates $1.2 billion a year in economic benefits, including $122 million in capital spending and tax revenues of nearly $34 million, according to a study commissioned by owner Dominion.

Dominion has been touting the nuclear complex's economic impact in Connecticut to lawmakers as it continues to fight a plan to tax its production of electricity. The company is opposing a legislative proposal that would tax the electric output of Millstone at 2 cents a kilowatt hour, or as much as $335 million a year.

Dominion has said the tax, if passed, would force the company to shut down one, if not both, reactors. Millstone's two nuclear reactors generate 2,100 megawatts of electricity, which is enough to supply about 500,000 homes.

The economic impact study by Chmura Economics & Analytics of Richmond, Va., was completed in late March. Dominion periodically reviews Millstone's economic impact on the community and decided to seek revisions of outdated figures when the tax proposal was introduced "so that we had current numbers to talk about when discussing the bill," said company spokesman Ken Holt.

"It's absolutely valuable to (Connecticut)," state Rep. Betsy Ritter, D-Waterford, said of the study. "When we look at tax policy, you have to evaluate the economic impacts. These are big numbers, so I think it needs to be part of the discussion."

Chmura found in its study that Millstone operations produce about $1.1 billion in economic benefits to the state each year, which supports 3,315 jobs. The company's capital spending alone at Millstone produces about $122 million annually in economic benefits and supports another 915 jobs, the report stated.

The study looked at both direct impact, such as jobs at the plant, as well as indirect and "induced" impacts, such as products from suppliers and workers spending their earnings as consumers.

In total, the study found that Millstone supports 4,230 jobs a year.

Over the past three years, Dominion has invested an average of $90 million annually at Millstone and is likely to continue to invest similar amounts, Chmura found.

In addition, the nuclear complex generates as much as $33.6 million a year in state and local taxes. Those estimates are conservative, relying only on tax revenues from direct impacts, according to the study consultant.

The analysis "clearly demonstrates that Millstone has a huge impact on Connecticut's economy as a whole - especially on the local area," said Holt. "Not only does the station directly support the community with spending and jobs, but that spending also creates jobs in the community."

Waterford First Selectman Dan Steward said earlier this week that Dominion represents about 30 percent of the town's tax base. The uncertainty surrounding the tax and the potential plant shutdown may already be costing the town money as it issues bonds for school projects, he said.

p.daddona@theday.com

 

General / Economics Mar 07

By Chris Chmura 
Published: March 07, 2011

Every so often, I get a question about the manufacturing sector.

It's usually driven by concern that the entire sector is going to move offshore and that the industry is too important to our overall economy.

Employment trends certainly show the manufacturing sector is shrinking. It employed 31 percent of the nation's work force in 1940, compared with 9 percent in 2010.

Part of the decline in manufacturing employment is because of its success in becoming more efficient and productive.

Manufacturing firms in the United States invested $159.7 billion in domestic research and development in 2008, or 68.3 percent of all the domestic R&D investments made that year, according to data from the National Science Foundation.

That R&D leads to new products as well as more efficient processes.

Productivity in the manufacturing sector rose by an annual average of 3.6 percent from 1989 through 2009, compared with an annual gain of 2.3 percent for all nonfarm businesses.

With a more productive work force, not as many workers are needed to produce the same amount, which is causing some of the decline in the nation's employment base.

But more productive workers get paid more — manufacturing workers were paid an average annualized salary of $55,150 in the first quarter of 2010, compared with an average of $45,640 for all industries.

Of course, moving labor offshore also is causing part of the decline in manufacturing employment.

Some firms are moving operations abroad, where labor costs are lower.

The competitive advantage of the United States has always been our more highly trained and educated work force.

From that perspective, many manufacturing firms that remain in the United States use more highly skilled workers.

Those jobs requiring higher skills, such as a college education, account for 12 percent more of the manufacturing industry's employment in 2010 than they did in 2003. The group with the lowest skills, such as those with a high school diploma and no on-the-job-training, accounts for 9 percent fewer manufacturing jobs during the same period.

The trend toward a more highly skilled manufacturing work force tells me that the industry is transitioning toward one that is likely to show more stability in employment over time and, at some point, will begin to add employment again.

In the meantime, the Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts that manufacturing industries such as medical equipment and pharmaceuticals will be adding jobs in the next 10 years, and the total output of the manufacturing industry will increase during the same period.

To remain competitive, we must continue to replace obsolete work force skills.

Just as the concept of movable type transformed the productivity of the printing industry, computers have transformed the look of the production floor as well as the type of worker needed.

General / Economics Mar 02

~Chmura Economics and Analytics Report Highlights Impact of Governor’s Transportation Plan~

RICHMOND – Virginia’s economy would expand by $13.1 billion and support 105,642 additional jobs over six years if the Governor’s transportation plan passed Feb. 27 by the General Assembly is fully implemented, according to research conducted by Chmura Economics and Analytics, a national consulting firm based in Richmond. 

Chmura’s research calculated the impact of the proposed 900 projects to the economy of the Commonwealth, including construction spending, ripple effects and job creation. Of the $13.1 billion in total impact, $7.2 billion is direct construction spending while $5.9 billion represents the ripple effects. Benefits generated by the projects would exceed costs and would have an average economic impact of $2.2 billion and support 17,607 jobs annually through 2017. 

Additionally, the result of the transportation investment would generate $119.8 million in tax revenue for the state, and $10.4 million of benefits for local governments over that same period. The report goes on to say the long-term benefits of transportation investments include time savings for businesses, vehicle maintenance savings and accident reduction. 

“Our transportation plan is aimed at putting Virginians back to work improving our transportation network,” said Governor Bob McDonnell. “This analysis by a nationally recognized economic firm reinforces that our program—the largest influx of transportation funding in a generation—will not only address the needs of the aging highway system upon which we all depend, but it will also provide a needed injection of funding into our economy to spur recovery from the difficult recession of the past several years.”

“The time is now for these transportation investments,” said Sean T. Connaughton, secretary of transportation. “Construction bids are coming in well below estimates, and interest rates are very low. Responsibly advancing bond sales and accelerating projects can bring tomorrow’s transportation improvements to citizens today.”

The 900 projects would be funded under the multi-faceted approach that creates a Virginia Transportation Infrastructure Bank, accelerates the sale of $3 billion in pre-approved state bonds, and issues $1 billion in federal Grant Anticipation Revenue Vehicles (GARVEE) Bonds to finance federal projects. The program also encourages private entities to enter into agreements to construct, improve, maintain and operate transportation facilities. 

The 900 proposed projects in the program include bridge, tunnel and corridor improvements to interstates, highways and local roads throughout the Commonwealth in urban and rural areas. 

The illustrative project list valued at $4.4 billion is available at http://www.virginiadot.org/news/resources/Statewide/sectran/Combined_Master_1-13-11_V10_SOT-No_Phase.pdf

The full report “Economic and Fiscal Impacts of the Construction Phase of Transportation funding in Virginia and its Regions” is available at http://www.virginiadot.org/news/resources/Statewide/sectran/Plan_VDOT_Executive_Summary.pdf

General / Economics Feb 04

Chris Chmura's presentation to the Home Building Association of Richmond was recently featured in an article by Carol Hazard of the Richmond Times-Dispatch:

The recession may be over but not for the home-building industry.

"The economic recovery in the U.S. is taking hold but, in your industry, things will remain rough this year," economist Christine Chmura said Thursday at the annual forecast seminar presented by the Home Building Association of Richmond.

"Foreclosures are hampering your sales," said Chmura, president of Chmura Economics & Analytics in Richmond.

Billed as the "Survivor's Playbook," the event at the Holiday Inn Select in Chesterfield County drew 360 people in the building and related industries.

Chmura and Lloyd M. Poe of Lifestyle Builders & Developers Inc. have headlined the event for years.

"It's all about surviving, what we have to do to survive, and how we get out of this mess," Poe said.

He noted that bank-owned homes outsold new homes in 2010 nationally and locally.

Nationwide, banks sold 2.5 houses for every one house sold by builders. New home sales accounted for 11 percent of all house sales, while distressed house sales made up 28 percent, Poe said.

"Who would have thought that one of our biggest competitors would be banks and they would also be driving down prices?"

Some foreclosures on the market are new homes that sold three years ago and come with fully landscaped yards, drapes and the whole works, Poe said.

Builders can reduce costs only so much before they cut into the reasons people buy new homes, he said. They can compete with foreclosures on design, warranties and clean titles.

The latest new-home trends include separate and larger laundry rooms, Poe said. The mud room has evolved into a drop zone with charging locations for electronic gadgets. Don't forget the charging station for the hybrid or electric car.

"The home office is now what used to be called a living room." The outdoor grilling area was put on hold to cut costs, but it's still important. The dining room has been replaced with a large breakfast area close to the kitchen.

And there could be a market for the baby boomer's McMansion in the suburbs, Poe said. Many houses are being used by multiple generations, from aging parents to boomerang children who come back to live at home — and they need space.

The good news is the existing inventory of all homes on the market has dropped to eight months, meaning it would take that long to sell all the houses on the market at the current sales rate. "We need to get to six months," he said.

Poe said the home-building industry is at the bottom. But once housing recovers, expect to see prices for lumber and drywall to go through the roof, he said.

Chmura's data showed that nearly 500 listings, or 7 percent of the properties for sale in the Richmond area in December, were bank-owned properties or repossessions.

Henrico and Chesterfield counties were among the top 10 localities with the most foreclosures in the state in December, with 180 and 148 foreclosures, respectively. Richmond had 107 foreclosures in December, and Hanover County recorded 25.

Fairfax County led the state with 438 foreclosures.

"Not until 2012 and 2013 do things start to feel good — and foreclosures are the biggest part of that story," Chmura said.

"Consumers still don't feel good about the economy," she said. But they are optimistic that it will improve in the next six months.

Chmura noted that Virginia created 36,900 jobs in December but that the state needs to recover 197,000 jobs to get back to pre-recession levels.

"It could be a year before we see those jobs come back, which is much better than the nation," she said.

At the current rate of job growth, the nation will not recover all of the lost jobs until late 2016, she said.

The Richmond area lost 45,000 jobs in the recession. "It will take four years to get back to the peak," she said.

Housing permits and starts are starting to inch up nationally and locally. Construction layoffs in the Richmond area are coming down.

Still, she said, "clearly, your industry has suffered."

General / Economics Feb 01

A recent economic impact study performed by Chmura Economics was featured in The State Journal:

BLUEFIELD -- Bluefield College recently did a study with Chmura Economics & Analytics to find out what kind of economic impact they have on their area.

According to the study, the school contributes $14.5 million to the community each year.

"It's just very fulfilling to know what a role that we're playing here and how important this college is in this region," said Bluefield College's Institutional Advancement Vice President Ruth Blankenship.

Blankenship said they did the study because legislators wanted to know what kind of an economic impact the school has on the community.

Bluefield College now has the answer.

Read the entire article.

General / Economics Jan 10

The aerospace industry economic impact study performed by Chmura Economics was recently featured in the Richmond Times-Dispatch's web and print editions:

A new study says the aerospace industry contributes $7.6 billion to Virginia's economy each year.

The study, released Friday by Gov. Bob McDonnell's office, also says the industry supported more than 28,000 workers in 2009.

It was the first comprehensive economic study of the industry in Virginia. The study was sponsored by the Virginia Department of Aviation and conducted by the Performance Management Group at Virginia Commonwealth University in partnership with Chmura Economics & Analytics of Richmond.

Virginia's Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport will begin commercial operations to the International Space Station from the Wallops Island Flight Facility this year.

 

General / Economics Jan 07

The office of Governor Bob McDonnell released this press release today about a study performed by Chmura Economics. The study can be found here: Virginia's Aerospace Industry: An Economic Impact Analysis - November 2010

Virginia’s Aerospace Industry Economic Impact Study Completed

RICHMOND— Governor Bob McDonnell released today the results of a new study to measure the economic impact and value of Virginia’s aerospace industry. “Virginia’s Aerospace Industry: An Economic Impact Analysis,” describes important contributions that the aerospace industry makes to the economy of Virginia and highlights areas of expected growth. 

Speaking about the analysis, Governor McDonnell noted, “The aerospace industry plays a vital role in the economy of the Commonwealth of Virginia and is a source of well paying, highly skilled jobs. As progress continues in this area, the entire Commonwealth will benefit.  This study provides valuable information that will serve as a baseline to measure future growth.” 

The study is the first comprehensive economic study of Aerospace in Virginia and includes supplemental information on the contributions from Virginia’s strong presence in aerospace military, education and tourism. It was sponsored by the Virginia Department of Aviation (DOAV), and conducted by the Performance Management Group at Virginia Commonwealth University in partnership with Chmura Economics & Analytics. Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) convened experts from all of Virginia’s public universities and colleges and relevant state agencies to develop the Commonwealth Economic Impact Research Model which guided this study. It is one part of a three part analysis that will include an airport economic impact analysis and a workforce development study for aviation and aerospace.

The study identified that Virginia’s aerospace industry contributed $7.6 billion per year to the economy of Virginia and supported 28,110 jobs in 2009 through direct impacts and ripple effects.  Aerospace directly employed 9,029 workers and created $4.3 billion in annual economic output in 2009. The study noted that aerospace workers are highly skilled and highly productive and are paid higher wages than the average in Virginia. 

Virginia is home to the Mid Atlantic Regional Spaceport, one of four spaceports in the nation.  It will begin commercial operations to the International Space Station from the Wallops Island Flight Facility beginning in 2011.  The Commonwealth is also fortunate to have facilities such as NASA Langley and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Wallops Flight Facility which have a long history of supporting and advancing the aerospace industry.  In addition, Virginia has three public universities; Old Dominion University, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (VA Tech), and University of Virginia, that offer undergraduate and graduate degrees in aerospace-related fields.  Virginia’s cooperative legislative and economic policies and practices, aided by its competitive workforce, have been driving forces behind an increase in the presence and investments of private aerospace firms to the Commonwealth at a time when many mature industries are declining both nationally and in the state.  Because Virginia has four times the concentration of space research and technology industry employment, when compared to the national average, it holds a clear, competitive advantage compared with other states in the nation. 

*The study can be downloaded from the Department of Aviation’s Website at www.doav.virginia.gov

Office of the Governor
Contact: Stacey Johnson
Phone: (804) 225-4260
E-mail: Stacey.Johnson@Governor.Virginia.Gov
Department of Aviation
Contact:  Kelly Pruitt                            
Phone:  (804) 236-3631 ext. 146
E-mail:  Kelly.Pruitt@doav.virginia.gov

 

General / Economics Dec 14

The Richmond Times-Dispatch covered Chris Chmura's upcoming talk at the RichTech meeting on December 15th, 2010:

Richmond economist Christine Chmura will have good news for the tech industry when she speaks to the RichTech group at a breakfast meeting Wednesday.

"The prospects for growth in the high-tech industry are good," Chmura said in an interview.

However, she cautioned, those prospects vary among the different groups within the industry.

Chmura is president and chief economist at Chmura Economics & Analytics, an economic development and work force consulting firm in Richmond.

She will present an overview of the current economy at the RichTech meeting at the University of Richmond's Jepson Alumni Center, hosted by the Robins School of Business.

RichTech is an association of technology-based businesses and organizations in central Virginia.

Chmura's presentation will emphasize the high-tech sector and its future.

High-tech includes information technology, life sciences, biotechnology and energy, Chmura said, but "there is no standard definition of high-tech."

High-tech employment in the Richmond region has declined during the recession more than in Virginia, she said, but, like the state, the region's high-tech economy has begun to grow again.

People in the high-tech industry earn nearly twice the average annual pay in metro Richmond, she said: $82,787, based on data from the second quarter of 2010, while the average worker in the area was paid $45,357.

Cost for the breakfast program is $25 for members and $40 for nonmembers.

Registration begins at 7:30 a.m., and the program will be from 8 to 9 a.m.

RichTech recommends registering ahead of time online at www.richtech.com.

Update 12/16/2010: More details about Chris' presentation and photos from the event are available on the RichTech website.

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